Who Will Win the Presidential Election in 2012?

By Ranches Lee Hall

With 2012 officially beginning, political pundits and voters alike are turning their attention to the presidential campaign approaching in November. Incumbent Barack Obama has already declared that he will run for a second term. With Obama's approval through the Democratic primaries all but certain, political aficionados have taken interest in what the Republicans will need to do to beat him.

Obama has had an up-and-down presidency thus far in the eyes of the voters. In January of 2009, after taking office, Obama stood at 69% approval. Since then, his approval rating has been on a steady decline. It isn't uncommon, however, for a president to see his or her highest approval rating just after inauguration. After experiencing his lowest approval ratings in the second half of 2011 (38% in August and October), Obama has rebounded. A December 2011 Gallup Poll saw his approval rating at 47%. Many political analysts believe that an incumbent must have around a 48% approval rating to carry a campaign to re-election.

The Economy

One of the more difficult issues Obama has had to deal with during his presidency is the economy. When Obama took office, the United States was in the midst of a recession. In fact, much of the politics surrounding the presidential election of 2008 centered on how to bring the winning candidate would bring the country out of the economic hardship facing so many of its citizens.

The recession ended in June of 2009, allowing Obama to make good on one of his campaign promises. At the end of 2011, however, much of the voting population still feels the pinch of difficult economic times. Thus, Obama will be pressured in 2012 by Republican candidates who promise to change the economic landscape. If their rhetoric can be convincing enough, the Republicans may be able to draw some undecided voters over to their side.

The Candidates

Besides the economy, it seems like the biggest determining factor in the 2012 election will be who the Republicans choose to run for them. The pool of candidates as of the beginning of 2012 has some political analysts suggesting the Republicans may be limited in their ability to unseat Barack Obama due to the lack of a competitive candidate.

The front-runner at this point for the Republicans is Mitt Romney. Romney is the former governor of Massachusetts, and made a run for the presidency during the 2008 election. He eventually conceded the Republican nomination to John McCain, however. While Romney is an articulate and charismatic politician, his voting history has been a bit too liberal for the tastes of conservatives. Romney championed health care legislation while Governor of Massachusetts that appeared to help set the precedent for Obama's sweeping health care reform. Earlier in his career, Romney also was expressly pro-choice, another fact that doesn't sit well with Republicans.

If Romney wins the Republican Primaries, will he be conservative enough to garner the full support of the Republican voting populace? If not, Obama will likely run away with his bid for re-election. Despite some ups and downs in approval ratings and coming into office during a recession, Republicans will have a difficult time wrestling away the office from Obama unless they end up with a candidate that will invigorate the electorate. Romney, however, doesn't seem to be that person.

Ranches Hall is the owner of http://presidential2012candidates.com He has been online now for several years operating different blogs and online businesses and providing helpful information. He's a pastor and an accomplished songwriter.

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