Muslims Are NOT Our Enemies!

By David B. Smith

We live in dark times, my friends, and the recent tragic violence in Lebanon is an indication of just how dark things have become!

It is hard for us to conceive, from this distance, what it must have been like for our sisters and brothers in Southern Lebanon, who endured a month-long military bombardment! The carnage, the destruction, the misery and the inhumanity have left none of us untouched, and yet ... we realise that this is only a short chapter in a much larger and more miserable story that has not yet reached its conclusion!

The immediate future is unknown, but the indications are in no way encouraging. Somehow Israel has proclaimed its attack on Lebanon to be a victory, while the USA continues to posture for an attack upon Iran. And fuelling this insanity is an increasing amount of propaganda, coming from a number of directions, depicting this conflict as a war between religions - God forbid!

I'm not sure when this transformation happened, as in the case of the attacks on both Lebanon and Gaza, the initial issues were reasonably clear. Both conflicts concerned disputes over the integrity of territorial boundaries and the release of prisoners - a total of three Israeli prisoners on the one hand, and around 9,500 Palestinian prisoners, plus a number of Lebanese prisoners, on the other.

These were the issues. I'm not saying that they are easy issues to solve, but they are not hard to understand. They are significant issues - politically and historically - but they are not religious issues, except in so far as the level of human abuse involved is an offence to all religions!

How is it then that the violence in the Middle East has become a war of religions? It is my belief that the only explanation for this is that there must be some powerful groups with a vested interest in dividing Islamic people from Christians and Jews.

I believe it is deliberate, as the rhetoric and the propaganda and the way the media has twisted events, even in this country, is just too well-thought-through and too systematic to be the result of a simple misunderstanding.

I believe that there are forces at work - powerful and well-financed sources at work - trying to divide Christian people from their Islamic sisters and brothers, Christian from Moslem, Moslem from Christian, Moslem from Jew. And the truth is that these forces are currently proving to be very successful.

As some of you will know, I run a number of websites, and have a number of subscribers to my websites from all around the world, most especially from the US - around 5000 in all. Every day, it seems, I receive emails from some of the people on my mailing list, telling me that Moslems want to kill them!

Every day I receive these emails, and every day I write back: 'brother, please tell me which of our Islamic brethren is trying to kill you? Brother, do you actually know any Islamic people? If so, have you asked them why they want to kill you?'

The answer I get back is always basically the same: 'no, I don't personally know any Islamic people, but I have been reading a lot about Osama Bin Laden!'
'Brother', I reply, 'if we were Islamic, I think we would have much better grounds for believing that the people of the West are trying to destroy us! Afghanistan did not declare war on America. It was not Iraq that invaded the US. It was not Lebanon nor Palestine that invaded Israel. And I personally do not believe that Iran is about to initiate violence against anybody!'

Somehow everything has been twisted! Everything has been turned upside-down! Israel, the most militarily aggressive country in the Middle East, is somehow always seen as the victim. America, the most powerful country in the world, is somehow seen as being terribly vulnerable to attack!
It is rhetoric, propaganda, a twisting of the facts, and a number of downright lies that have brought us to this point. And we know full well where this path is going to take us if we continue on it - into further violence and bloodshed.

For this reason, I appeal to you tonight, my Islamic sisters and brothers, to please resist the temptation to cut yourselves off from your Christian friends. I ask this humbly, recognising that so many Moslem people in this community feel themselves to be under siege and the victims of prejudice, and for good reason. Even so, I ask you, please do not give up on us.

Please be patient with those amongst us that are struggling against the weight of propaganda that is aimed at dividing us. Give us another chance, so that we might stand with you against this violence and inhumanity that threatens to engulf us all.

As I said, it is not our respective religions that led us into this violence. Ironically though, I do believe that our common religious values may be able to lead us out.

Christians, Moslems and Jews, at a faith level, are all ultimately committed to peace - to peace and mutual respect. These are values that are sacred to all of us. Perhaps some of us have forgotten this. With all the violence and inhumanity, we have forgotten who we are and what we believe. Please dialogue with us and help us to remember.

I was fascinated to read about some recent research done by a Professor Pape of the University of Chicago in the US. The Professor did a detailed profiling of Hezbollah suicide bombers, following the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. What Pape found surprised many - namely, that out of 38 suicide bombers he studied in detail, only 8 were Islamic. Three were Christians. The vast majority, it seems were people of no faith. What united them was not their common religion, but a common commitment to resist the occupation.

The study reminds me again that these wars are not about religion, and yet, as I read about Christian and Islamic people working together there in violence, I think, how much more should we be able to work together for peace - for the rebuilding of Lebanon, for an end to the Palestinian occupation, and for an end to all this bloodshed.

=================================================================

'Fighting' Father Dave Smith - Parish Priest, community worker, professional fighter, father of three.

Dave is the only Australian in Holy Orders to turn pro boxer to help fund his work. He is Parish Priest in Dulwich Hill, has a sixth-degree martial arts black belt, and has received numerous awards for his work with young people.

Get a free preview copy of his book, 'Sex, the Ring & the Eucharist' when you sign up for Dave's newsletter at http://www.fatherdave.org or just send an email to

newsletter-subscribe@fatherdave.org ==================================================================

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What Our World Could Be Like in 2020

By Mark W. Medley

Here are is a glimpse into our probable future - based on on-going trends in the last twenty years, and call it the "20-20 vision" into our most probable future.

1. Languages

English should still the most popular language, but Chinese should be second. As with English today, many people may study Chinese as a second language, whilst many local languages will still continue to disappear. The use of regional languages should continue to grow as some countries could break up into regional entities.

2. Water Becomes the New Oil

Water will become a much needed resource, as rivers continue to dry up, and new technologies are developed to create sustainable water resources. Regional conflicts may occur over the scarcity of water supplies, whilst some desert areas will have to be depopulated. We will learn to ration, and have to pay more for the water we use.

3. Climate Change

The economic troubles created in late 2008, will overshadow global efforts to combat the effects of our warming planet. Some resource poor but technology rich countries will be forced to use alternative energies, and be less consummative. However, as many nations in the developing World have opted for western-style development over the environmental effects of this growth- They should eventually face the need to clean up their own environment.

4. Poverty and Wealth

The first, second and third World could exist in some degree in all countries. Europe and North America may mirror the rest of the World, with similar wealth gaps comparable today to India, and South America. The world will look more equal, but be more unequal- depending on which World you live in.

5. Education

A majority of students could be educated on-line. This may be a result of decaying public schools in the Western world, but also newer technologies that are replacing some aspects of a traditional education. Some examinations are set to become global benchmarks in educational assessment, accepted throughout the world.

6. Population Growth and Migration

Developed Countries, may have to encourage the migration of younger emigrants from outside Europe and North America, because of negative population growth. First world communities in all countries should of effectively become "World citizens," and freely migrate throughout the globe. A reverse "brain drain" effect could see former migrants return home, as their own economies improve, and living conditions in the former "West" decline.

7. War and Conflict

A declining Europe and the United States may at some stage be involved in a limited conflict with either Russia and/or China. This conflict could end in a stalemate, whilst the reasons of this conflict are probably based primarily on economic, and mineral "rights"- the cost of such a conflict, would lead to more environmental decay, and a restructuring of existing trade routes.

8. Science

We may be eating more genetically modified and synthetic foods- designer foods developed in new hi-tech "growing centers." Robots will become more common, whilst some nations will start space exploration programs,-with a view to colonize space. In some countries the surveillance of their own citizens,could expand due to smart technology, and the need to contain civil unrest- as the wealth gap widens.

9. Travel

Regional travel should increase, whilst global travel be reserved for first World Citizens or higher up second world citizens. Traveling long distances could become more expensive and more time consuming. Sea and land transport may become more popular- whilst flying long distances becomes more a pastime of the global elite.

Our World in 2020, could be one of wonder or one of conflict, depending on which world we live in, but also one of still fragmented beliefs, and scientific advancement. We may continue hoping that science solves the problems our planet faces, and start looking beyond our planet as a future home.

Discover how to survive and thrive in a changing economy

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An Overview of Asia

By Richard Monk

Asia is the largest continent when measured by landmass and human population. Following is an overview of Asia.

Asia is considered one of the seven continents. This continental definition, however, is far broader than many people think. Under the seven continent methodology, Asia stretches from Japan in the East through Russia in the West. It encompasses Saudi Arabia and everything above Asia. While it doesn't always make practical sense, there is no denying this definition of Asia makes it the home of over 60 percent [4 billion] of all humans. China and India, of course, are the locations of a vast majority of these people.

In modern times, geographers recognize there really is no dividing line between Asia to the west and Europe to the East. This has resulted in the entire area being called Eurasia, but thousands of years of terminology aren't about to pass into antiquity. Today, most people refer to Europe as a continent so far as it extends to the Ural Mountains in Russia. Everything to the east of that mountain range is considered Asia. For instance, Israel is considered a country in Western Asia!

Russia has even picked up on this theme with the two heads on the national flag. The west facing head refers to the European part of Russia while the East facing head refers to the Asian part of the country. Within Russia, it is almost as if there are two countries with Moscow and St. Petersburg having heavy European influences. Cities in the Far East, such as Vladivostok, are much more oriented to China and such.

To resolve the boundary issue, the powers that be have started defining Asia subcontinents. The areas are:

Central Asia - Kazakhstan Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

1. East Asia - China, Japan, Mongolia, Taiwan, North and South Korea.

2. North Asia - Russia.

3. India Subcontinent - India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.

4. Southeast Asia - Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar [Burma], Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

5. Southwest Asia - The Middle East including Turkey, Iran, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and sometimes Egypt.

Given the problems defining the boundaries of Asia, you can imagine it is also difficult to define certain characteristics regarding the continent. After all, life in Turkey is much different than in China. Conversely, customs in India are completely different than those in China. In fact, most people living in Asia take offence when someone uses the word "Asians" to refer to them. The word implies a similarity among all people in Asia, which simply isn't true.

Economically, things are a bit easier to categorize. The largest economy in Asia is China as a measure of gross domestic product. Officially known as the People's Republic of China, this country remains communist in name only when it comes to economic issues. With massive economic growth over the last 10 years, China is the second largest economy in the world after the United States. Another heavily populated area, India, is now the fourth biggest economy in the world, while relatively small Japan is the third. Put in practical terms, Asia is home to three of the four biggest economies on Earth. The three dominant financial centers are Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore.

With so many countries, it is hardly surprising to find a wide variety of religious practices in Asia. There are a wide variety of belief systems, but Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam have the largest number of adherents.

Figuring out exactly what constitutes Asia is largely a matter of opinion. Among many assertions about Asia, the undisputable one is it is the home to the largest percentage of humans on the planet.

Richard Monk is with FactsMonk.com - a site with facts about everything. Visit us to read more about Asia and Asia Facts.

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Investing In A Developing Economy - A Possible Solution To Global Financial Crisis

By Azeez Olawale-Arish Yusuff

INTRODUCTION

If there were security problems in Nigeria, no businessman would go to the country to explore opportunities, companies like Celtel, MTN, Etisalat, would not have ventured into security risk country to do business. Those who spread rumour about security and corruption problems in Nigeria are saying so to stop others from making money in the country. Figures don't lie. They are the biggest testimonies for how conducive Nigeria's environment for business and opportunities are. If you want to do business in Africa and record good returns on your investment, I welcome you to come to Nigeria. The political environment in Africa, particularly in Nigeria is tremendous.

Dr. Hamadoun Toure,
Secretary General,
International Telecommunications Union,
Cited in the Punch Newspaper, May 13, 2008)

What is happening currently with the Nigerian financial system is far from being affected in any way by the global credit crisis. At global level currently, the banks are under-capitalised, but Nigerian banks are over-capitalised. And I do not think this is a problem at all. I believe that Nigerian banks are under pressure from other economies within Africa continent that are affected by the credit challenges.

- Gordon Smith,
Head of Research, Africa and the Middle East, International Consilium,
(Reported in the Punch Newspaper, June 30th, 2008).

The foregoing statements aptly connote two understandings of the state of Nigerian economy. These understandings show that, the economy is one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and in the world. Although Nigeria has had hash economic history, it has undergone and still undergoing economic reforms, which are aimed at making Nigeria the Africa's financial hub and one of the twenty largest economies in the world by the year 2020. Needless to say that the country has experienced political instability, corruption, and poor macroeconomic management in the past, this was responsible for unpleasant and harsh economic situation. The government relentless efforts to reposition the economy have translated into a remarkable economic growth and development. Several mechanisms have been put in place to sustain this growth and development, capable of balancing the interests of stakeholders. Perhaps, this view must have influenced Gordon Smith submission. He described Nigeria as the most dynamic market in Africa, which is under severe pressure from some countries in Africa to serve as a cushion against the effects of global turbulence. He also noted that some countries like Ghana, Malawi, Mauritius, among others were depending on her at the moment due to global risk exposure and that the country's economy, led by the consolidated banks, was far from being affected by the global credit crisis currently rocking the world's financial giants. He stressed further that foreign investors, who will be patient enough to weigh the Nigerian financial system on the credit risk perspective relative to global events, will find the nation's financial sector more interesting to invest and raise capital from.

Faced with numerous challenges, Nigerian government is determined to strengthen, diversify and make the economy attractive and investment-friendly to both local and foreign investors. The government has adopted total liberalization and globalization as the economic policy, instituted privatization and commercialization programmes of public enterprises, provided total security for business and people, extended invitation to domestic and foreign investors, abolished laws inhibiting competition, embraced and fine-tuned policies to ensure quick realization of growth and development of all sectors of the economy. The effort is already paying off as Nigeria is now the focus for foreign investment thereby increased exponentially Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Scores of economic missions and delegations from developed and developing countries have visited Nigeria, thus accelerating the growth of the economy at a very fast rate.

It becomes pertinent to direct the course of this discussion to embrace the second understanding of the above statements made by Hamadoun Toure and Gordon Smith. However, it becomes more pertinent to enumerate the inherent investment opportunities in Nigerian economy before discussing the issue of security as raised by Toure.

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND SECURITY ISSUE IN NIGERIA

No doubt, Nigeria is an investment haven with countless and lucrative investment opportunities including oil and gas, solid mineral, agriculture, tourism, telecommunication, power and steel, transport, trade processing zone, financial sector, real estate / property, manufacturing, sport and entertainment, and fashion industry. Investors have a wide range of opportunities to choose from. It is important to note that the rate of growth of investment is fantastic and exponential in any of these sectors. Investors are at advantage of presenting their products and services to already-made market taking advantage of the population of over 140 million.

In telecommunication, statistics reveals that mobile phone users in Africa were about 280 million, overtaking United States and Canada with their 277 million users in the opening quarter of 2008. With 70 million connections in 2007, the Continent became the fastest growing region in the world, representing a growth of 38 per cent, ahead of the Middle-East (33 per cent) and the Asia-Pacific (29 per cent).It was also revealed that the fastest growing markets are located in northern and western Africa, representing altogether 63 per cent of the total connections in the region. The record showed that Nigeria, Zambia, Tanzania, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana and South Africa are highly competitive markets in the Region. The record further contends that two-third of Africa's telephony are in their early phase of development, with penetration rates below 30 per cent at the end of 2007.In percentage terms, it was noted that Africa is the fastest growing market in the world, but also the second smallest in terms of connections after Middle-East.

As Nigeria accounts for 57 per cent of the West Africa mobile phones, the country is acknowledged as the leading and the fastest growing telecom market in Africa. With mobile phone users at 44,932,181 and 734,444 for GSM and mobile CDMA respectively, her contributions to West Africa and Africa's telecommunication growth can not be overemphasized. While the overall economic growth rate stands at 7% per annum, the mobile telephony is about 35-50%. Assuming that each of these connections was busy for a minute in a day, the country telecoms market has the capacity to generate over USD 16 million per day (USD16, 666,667) and close to USD 6 billion per year (USD 5,833,333,300). This is why telecom companies such as Visafone and Etisalat quickly joined the likes of MTN, Globacom, Celtel and other telecoms service providers in exploiting opportunities in the country.

Early this year, one of the main GSM service providers with a subscriber base of over 15 million announced a profit after taxation of USD650 million (78 billion naira) for the year 2007.Putting all these together, one can easily understand Toure's submission describing Nigerian telecoms market as the best investment destination in Africa.

Recognizing the fact that the Nigeria telecoms industry is enormous and there is need to further exploit the sector to its fullest, the Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC) and the Ministry of State for Information and Communications have made their positions clear by extending invitation to global investors for active participation in the sector as they are willing to grant pioneer status and license for prospective applicants for various undertaking such as Fixed telephony, Mobile telephony, Fixed satellite (VSAT),Paging, Payphone, Internet and other value added services.

With the above facts, one can safely conclude that Nigerian telecom sector offers fantastic and lucrative investment opportunities to global investors. And putting into consideration 40% GSM market growth rate in the first quarter of this year (2008), there is potential for high return on investment in this sector.

Agriculture, the dominant sector of Nigeria economy, engages about 70 per cent of the population directly and provides nearly 88 percent of non-oil foreign exchange earnings. It contributes about 41 per cent of the GDP of the country. The sector recorded an overall growth rate average of 7 per cent in the last three years, a major improvement from under 3 per cent in the 90's.

Statistically, 91 million hectares of the country's total land area of 92.4 million hectares is adjudged to be suitable for cultivation. Approximately half of this cultivable land is effectively under permanent and arable crops, while the rest is covered by forest wood land, permanent pasture and built up areas. Among the states, which have the most abundant land, areas are Niger (7.6 million hectares) and Borno (2.8 million hectares).

Agriculture crops in Nigeria are grouped into cereals, root and tuber crops, grains legumes and other legumes, oil seeds and nuts, tree crops, and vegetable and fruits. Governments and the Ministries of Agriculture have made land acquisition easy, encouraged agricultural practices, extended (still extending) invitation to foreign investors and have put in place several incentives to stimulate growth in the sector. Despite, the agricultural potential of Nigeria is barely being tapped and this explains the inability of the country to meet the ever-increasing demand for agricultural products and her rank as 55th in the world (although first in Africa) in farm output.

As the world experiences food crisis and persistent rise in fuel price, the country's agriculture offers unlimited opportunities for foreign investors and the world at large to provide solutions to these crises. Foreign investors will find investments in cultivation of sugar cane, sugar beet, sweet sorghum, starch (corn/maize), palm oil, soybeans, jatropha, and algae. These products are lucrative as they are potential for biofuels, a good substitute for fossil fuel. Presently, there is a very high demand for these crops from the developed economies.

Solid Mineral is another sector with great investment opportunities. Nigeria is endowed with numerous mineral resources. Recent policy reforms have brought the solid minerals sector to the fore. The emphasis is on encouraging massive foreign investors' participation in this sector as less than 0.5 per cent is contributed to the Gross Domestic Products from Solid mineral sector. However, the Ministry of Mines and Steel and the Ministry of state's focal attention in the last one year is to strategically place the country in a better position to explore and exploit just seven minerals in the plethora of minerals so as to increase Gross Domestic Product to 5 per cent within the next few years. The seven strategic minerals are coal, bitumen, limestone, iron-ore, barite, gold and lead / zinc.

Coal can be found in Enugu, Benue and Kogi. Within these three districts 396 million metric tones can be demonstrated using JORC classification criteria, while an additional 1,091 million tones of inferred and hypothetical coal resourced for the areas studied is 1481 million tones.

Knowing fully that development of coal will assist in the realization of energy, the Government and the Ministries are inviting foreign investors to participate actively in the exploration and exploitation of the mineral. Companies such as Denver Resources and Western Metals have already committed US$10 million and US$15 million respectively for two coal fields in the country. Another Chinese firm, Grid Xin Yuan International Investment Company that is providing more than half of China's electricity needs is also in the country, indicating their interest in the development of a coal field in Kogi State.

The Bitumen reserve in the country is estimated at more than 27 billion barrels of oil equivalent while iron-ore is estimated at over 5 billion inferred reserves with presence in Kogi, Enugu, Niger, Zamfara and Kaduna States. Gold in just 10 locations is estimated at 50,000 ounces, barites 10 million metric tones and limestone at 2.3 trillion reserves.

Talc with an estimated reserve of over 100 million tones can be found in Niger, Osun, Kogi, Kwara, Ogun, Taraba and Kaduna States.The colour of the Nigerian talc varies from white through milky-white to grey. The talc industry represents one of the most versatile sectors of the industrial minerals in the world. The exploitation of the vast talc deposits in Nigeria would therefore satisfy not only the local demands but also that of the international market as well.

The national demand for table salt, caustic soda, chlorine, sodium bicarbonate, sodium hydrochloric acid and hydrogen peroxide exceeds one million tones. A colossal amount of money is expended annually to import these chemicals. There are salt springs at Awe (Platue State), Enugu, and Uburu ( Imo State), while rock salt is available in Benue State. A total reserve of 1.5 billion tones has been indicated. Government, to ascertain the quantum of reserves, is now carrying out further investigations.

In the same vain, large bentonite reserves of 700 million tones are available in many states of federation ready for massive development and exploitation, over 7.5 million tones of barite been identified in Taraba and Bauchi states, and an estimated reserve of 3 billion tones of good kaolinific clays has also been identified.

Gemstone mining has boomed in various parts of Plateau, Kaduna and Bauchi States for years. Some of these gemstones include Sapphire, Ruby, Aquamarine, Emerald, Tourmaline, Topaz, Gamet, Amethyst, Zircon, and Fluorspar, which are among the best in world. Good prospects exist in this area for viable investment. Understanding that this sector requires urgent investment, the Ministry has directed miners who are still in small artisan levels to form cooperatives so as to benefit from World Bank US$10 million assistance. Apart from this, three Nigerian Banks have also established solid minerals desk with fund of over US$ 8 million each for the development of the sector.

Foreign investors will find this sector worth-investing on as Nigerian governments have put in place various incentives and strategies for investment such as 3-5 years tax holiday, deferred royalty payments, possible capitalization of expenditure on exploration and surveys, extension of infrastructure and provision of 100% foreign ownership of mining concerns.

Recognizing that only a sustained macroeconomic environment and a sound and vibrant financial system can propel the economy to achieve the country's desire to become one of 20 largest economies in the world by the year 2020, on the July 6, 2004 the Federal Government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under the leadership of its Governor, Professor Charles Soludo launched a 13-point reform agenda to restructure, refocus and strengthen the Nigerian Financial System. To complement this agenda, another comprehensive long-term reform agenda for the Financial System (the Financial System Strategy 2020-FSS2020) was launched. The grand objectives of these agendas are substantially being achieved. The country financial system now comprises of strong, efficient and internationally competitive banks with an eye for global markets, a capital market with highest returns on investment, in dollar terms, a sound and rewarding insurance industry and other competitive financial participants.

Gordon was right in his submission to have described Nigeria as the most dynamic market in Africa. His view that "foreign investors, who will be patient enough to weigh the Nigerian Financial System on the credit risk perspective relative to the global event, will find the nation's financial sector more interesting to invest and raise funds from" x-rays the truth about the country's financial sector.

The country's banking system is the safest and the soundest it has ever produced in history. It is the fastest growing banking system in Africa and one of the fastest in the world. In fact, the most outstanding contribution towards realization of the country's dream came from this sub-sector. Economic analysts have observed that it has taken Nigeria less than 3 years to achieve what it took South Africa 20 years to achieve in the area of banking. In a short word, a world-class banking system has emerged in Nigeria.

Statistically, banking sector contributes 10 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and represents 60 per cent of the stock market capitalization, while there was a reduction in the number of banks from 89 to 25, the number of banks branches rose by 33 per cent from 3383 in 2004 to 4500 in 2007. The total asset base of banks rose by 104 per cent from $ 26.8 billions ( 3.21 trillion naira) in 2004 to $54.7 billion ( 6.56 trillion naira) by mid 2007; capital and reserves rose by 192 per cent from $2.72 billion (327 billion naira) to $7.98 billion ( 957 billion naira); capital adequacy ratio rose by 42.6 per cent, point from 15.18 per cent to 21.6 per cent and ratio of non-performing loans total loan improved massively by 51.3 per cent, point from 19.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent. The sector has also remained one of the most profitable in the country's capital market. It was noted that 13 out of 21 quoted banks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange recorded returns in excess of 100 per cent since January 2007.

According to the April 2008 edition of the African Business, (the best-selling Pan-African Business Magazine published in London) 18 out of 28 West African Companies with market capitalisation of more than $1 billion are Nigerian Banks. The magazine stated that First Bank Nigeria Plc with market capitalization of $7.4 billion remains the largest company in West Africa. Two other Nigerian banks namely Intercontinental Bank Plc and United Bank for Africa (UBA) remain the second and the third largest companies in the sub-region with market capitalization of $6.2 billion and $4.6 billion respectively.

Apparently, the rising tide of banks in the country from all indications has made the sub-sector very attractive, not only to local investors, but also to foreign investors, and in particular, foreign banks. For instance, the consolidation of Regent Bank, Chartered Bank and IBTC to form IBTC Chartered Bank attracted the interest of the Standard Bank Group, the largest financial institution in Africa with a market capitalization of $ 17.8 billion, whose subsidiary Stanbic Bank, also of South Africa has just sealed a Merger deal for the latest Merger in the country, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc. In this direction, other foreign banks have started making enquiries with CBN of a possible Merger or take-over.

To further substantiate the opportunities the banking sub-sector offers the global investors, a cursory look into Intercontinental Bank Plc will reveal the success of banking system in the country. Intercontinental Bank Plc is known to be the second largest companies in West Africa to have recorded a phenomenal growth in gross earnings, which stood at $1.45 billion ( 173.5 billion naira) in 2008. This is an increase of 99 per cent over the $728 million (87.4 billion naira) in 2007, profit after tax grew by 102 per cent to $380 million ( 45.6 billion naira) as against $188 million (22.6 billion) in 2007, while the capital base rose to $1.67 billion from $1.31 billion. The bank deposit base soared to $8.75 billion ( 1.05 trillion naira), an increase of 126 per cent from $3.9 billion (468 billion naira) in 2007, while the total assets also recorded a quantum leap to $14.2 billion (1.7 trillion naira), representing a growth of 108 per cent from $6.86 billion( 823 billion).

The bank is also in strategic partnership with BNP Paribas, the world leading energy financing bank, Afrexim Bank; Export Development Canada (EDC); Finance for Development (FMO); China Exim Bank; Export-Import of United States; International Finance Corporation in financing projects in different sectors of the economy. However, it is relevant to say that the success recorded by Intercontinental bank is a good example of the Nigerian banks' strength and prospects, and a testimony to opportunities available to global investors in the country' financial sector.

Apart from the above, Nigerian Capital Market offers viable opportunities as it is positioned to help companies to raise capital, and to generate high returns on investment. Its total market capitalization has grown by over 4000 per cent to $100 billion (12 trillion naira) in March, 2008, up from $2.39 billion (287 billion naira ) in August 1999.Among emerging markets, the Nigerian Capital market remains one of the most viable in terms of returns on equity. Historically, the market has delivered 28 per cent returns.

Insurance industry is not an exemption to this growth and development the country's financial sector is witnessing. Although there are few black spots on the regulatory handling, the industry has equally recorded success in their reforms and operations. With the inflow of robust capital, insurance companies are now faced with the challenges of delivering returns to shareholders, maximizing value and exploring overseas markets. Their presence can be felt in countries like Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sao Tome, South Africa among others.

Although Goldman Sachs' report titled "New Market Analyst" with issue number 08/09 released on March 13, 2008 (cited in the Thisday newspaper March 19,2008) posited that Nigeria is a better economy than South Africa, International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Nigeria and South Africa got close to 50 per cent of the $53 billion private equity and debt flow to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2007. This underscores the growing confidence of International bodies and foreign investors in country's financial sector and economy at large.

Furthermore, Fitch Rating Agency and the Standard and Poor rated Nigeria BB-(minus) in the area of sovereign credit, high in development of local currency debt market, and low in the areas of debt to GDP ratio and inflation. The opportunities for growth in Nigeria financial sector are still strong as the underlying fundamentals driving the growth are still present. All these and more, position the financial sector and the country at large as a leading and most dynamic market in Africa and present viable investment opportunities to global investors.

Needless to say that the opportunities presented above are typical examples and an evidence of opportunities awaiting foreign investors in other sectors of the economy.

Nigeria is the largest producer and exporter of oil in Africa (although recently placed second behind Angola in the latest OPEC report as a result of Niger Delta Crisis) with a production of 2.5 million barrels and above a day. Besides, the Nigeria is the 7th world's gas reserve holder and the highest flaring nation in the world, with the potential to become a major player in LNG export. It has annual gas flares' capacity to generate over 12000 MW of electricity needed to catalyze the growth of any economy. Although it currently flares an average of 1.2 TCF of gas annually, the sector has the potential to generate great returns on investment.

One of the greatest opportunities awaiting foreign investors is Real Estate / Property. For instance, Lagos Metropolis with a population of about 18 million has attained mega city status. The State has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world according to the World Bank. Consequently, there is an insatiable demand for housing delivery, which has necessitated the introduction of the New Private Estate Developers Scheme. Under the programme, the government will make large parcels of land ranging from 1 to 25 hectares available to corporate organizations capable of undertaking development and delivery of housing units. Such organization must however demonstrate that they have the financial capacity and technical expertise to deliver quality and affordable housing units.

Among other sectors of the economy that foreign investors will find viable and worth-investing on are Transport, Sport and Entertainment, Tourism, Power and Steel, Export Processing Zones, Privatization. And available records reveal that the rate of returns in these sectors is as high as in the sectors discussed above.

Apart from the opportunities mentioned above which our office is strategically positioned to maximize opportunities for the benefit of prospective investors. We also offer consultancy services in the areas of general management, manufacturing, marketing, finance and accounting, personnel, research and development, packaging, administration, international operation, specialized services and other value-adding services. And our strategic partnership with national and international companies put us in position to deliver quality service and high returns on investment.

Nevertheless, there have been fears raised by international observers, agents and bodies that Nigeria is a high-risk nation for investment and other business transactions. This development is attributed to security, multiple taxation, epileptic power supply, bad roads and poor work environment.

It may appear that doing business in Nigeria is challenging because of the activities of a few untrustworthy Nigerians who are unscrupulous. But such are simply characterization of human nature; as it can be found anywhere else in the world. It must be said emphatically that the world has been biased in their judgment and treatment of Nigeria security issue. There have never been terrorist attacks, suicide bombings or kidnapping until recently when the issue of Niger Delta came on board.

Niger Delta region-the source of nation's oil wealth- has become an area of perennial tension, agitation, and recently, militancy. However, a confluence of factors such as environmental damage by oil exploitation, failure to develop the region, lack of job opportunities and sense of deep deprivation from the low share of derivation revenue accruing to the states in the region, has led to the present situation. Acknowledging their situation, the Federal Government has organised a Summit, to be chaired by Professor Ibrahim Gambari, the United Nations Under Secretary General, to provide everlasting solution to the crisis. Frankly speaking, Nigeria is a safe and investment-friendly place and Nigerians are accommodating and industrious.

Cyber Crime is another fearsome crime, which often put-off prospective investors from involving or investing in the business opportunities in Nigeria. This crime was actually imported into the country by expatriates. It has never been part of Nigeria culture. It is perpetrated by a few section of the population. Their operations are carried out via Internet and their targets are people who transact business via the medium. They pose as government officials and sometimes as businessmen with United Kingdom identity who deal in digital products. However the list of their tricks and operations is not exhaustive. With the help of Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), Independent Corrupt Practices and Related Commission (ICPC), and other Anti-Criminal Agencies, Cyber Crime and their perpetrators are under control and disappearing.

The grand objective of the present administration, as encapsulated in VISION 2020, is to make Nigeria a major industrial and economic power, and one of the 20 largest economies in the World by the year 2020 by providing enabling investment and business environment and maximum security for active participation of local and particularly, foreign investors. The realization of these aspirations had informed the radical and pragmatic reforms designed to increase the attractiveness of Nigeria's investment opportunities and foster the growing confidence in the economy. In this direction, the Federal Government has provided incentives and strategies for investment such as 3-5 years tax holiday, deferred royalty, possible capitalization of expenditure and provision of infrastructures such as road and electricity, just to mention a few.

African economy is witnessing the strongest growth in 30 years; no doubt, Nigeria is one of the major contributors to this development. Most commentators have observed that the opportunities for business and investment in the country look increasingly rosy with GDP growth of 7 per cent in 2007 and 13 per cent in the next 12 years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 9 per cent growth rate for Nigeria in 2008 (which is second to India 10 per cent and ahead of China 8 per cent) lays credence to their observations.

Furthermore, the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, the entrance of multinational companies, the strong financial sector, the favourable and tremendous business environment, the government support, the abundant natural resources, and the population of over 140 million people, among others, put Nigeria in a comparative ( and possibly absolute) advantage over other African countries.

Just as it is difficult to ignore China as a market in the global arena, (one out of every five persons in the world is Chinese) so is it very difficult to ignore Nigeria as a market in Africa (one out of every three persons in Africa is Nigerian). With a population of over 140 million people and its economic potential, Nigeria still remains Africa most important market.

IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

Unlike China and India, African economy(developing economies) is yet to be integrated into the world economy. This is as a result of slow rate of integration and globalization at which the economy is being fixed into the global economic and financial system. Consequently, developing economies will only suffer a limited financial impact from the credit crunch. However, this is not to say that developing economies are in isolation and totally free from the crisis.

To grant a point, this paper will continue to use Nigerian economy for its analysis as it represents a paradigm of a developing economy with valid and considerable variables.

According to the report from a recently concluded Bankers Committee Meeting, which ended on October 20 th, 2008 , the Nigerian banks are safe as they operate at 22 per cent capital adequacy ratio( 14 per cent above the world 8 per cent requirement) and the financial sector is far from being affected by the current global financial crisis. The report also posits that any bail-out scheme is unnecessary as the situation that warranted bail-out schemes in developed economies- poor quality assets and heavy loan losses resulting from exposure to inadequately collateralised mortgage loans- is absent in Nigeria. To underscore its point, the report noted that, as the Direct Foreign Investment in Nigerian banks is comparatively low and the banks connection with their foreign counterparts is loosely fixed, the impact of the crisis will be limited and indirect.

Conclusion

The words of Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Managing Director of International Monetary Fund, at a meeting in Washington D.C are the corner stones of the concluding thoughts of this paper. He stressed as follow:

We meet at an extra-ordinarily difficult time- a time of uncertainty and insecurity, with a danger that those fears push us away from- not towards- a more inclusive and sustainable globalization....At its best, multilateralism is a means for solving problems among countries, with the group at the table willing to take constructive action together. When multilateralism is dysfunctional, globalization can be a Babel of Tower, with competing national interests colliding to benefit none. The new multilateralism, suiting our times, is likely to be a flexible network, not fixed system. It needs to maximize the strengths of interconnecting actors, public and private, profit-making and civil society Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). The multilateralism must respect state sovereignties while solving interconnected problems that transcend borders...The private sector cannot restore confidence on its own. Macroeconomic policy measures by governments cannot restore confidence on their own. Piecemeal measures on financial markets will not restore confidence on their own. What will restore confidence is government intervention which is clear, comprehensive and cooperative among countries..The world must act quickly, forcefully and cooperatively to contain the ongoing financial and economic downturn.

Thus, the position of this paper is that the confidence will only be restored if "government intervention which is clear, comprehensive and cooperative" is complemented with investment in developing economies with less or no crisis impact as "flexible multilateralism" and cooperative and sustainable globalization is solution that suits our time, not" economic isolationism".

Azeez Olawale-Arish Yusuff,
Speaker, Human Right Advocate, Tutor, Entrepreneur, International consultant,Economic analyst, Founder/Manager, Cyber Crime Solution Providers Network.

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Finding the Best Atlas of the World

By Mike Ramidden

Every home needs a good world atlas. While MapQuest, Yahoo Maps and Google Maps may have edged out traditional street maps for our directional needs, there will always be a place for a nice hard-cover, full-colored atlas. You can read at-a-glance profiles of different countries or cities, gain travel tips, reference information, teach the kids about other places and cultures or simply explore the world right from your sofa. But which one of the world reigns supreme? This question is a difficult one to answer, but here are some classic selections, as well as some new options to unearth.

One of the most frequently used atlases is Goode's World Atlas, edited by Edward B. Espenshade, Jr. This pocket-sized book contains a number of high-quality maps from a cache of professional geographers. Another great selection is the National Geographic Road Atlas of the United States, Canada and Mexico, which features, hands-down, the best street maps of North America. The 10th Edition Times map of the World boasts 125 color maps and a quarter of a million place names.

The DK World Atlas is full of entertaining facts, while also providing geographic information about every country in the world. You will also want to add the DK Atlas of World History, which includes maps, timelines, photographs and historical notes, and the DK World Reference Atlas, which has 1 to 6 pages about each country, discussing politics, climate, world affairs, economics, crime, health, media, education and communications.

Sometimes you can find a map the world that reveals the current state of our planet. The State of the World Atlas does just that, displaying the most current statistics, profiles and realities about world politics, economics, food supplies, military power, energy resources, pollution levels and biodiversity. In a nutshell, what a hardcopy atlas of the world delivers, which online mapping lacks, is that historical, worldview of mapmakers and cartographers who take the great time and effort to color code our world and combine data with maps in a sensible way, thus painting the larger picture.

If you are looking for an atlas of American history to inspire the kids, then consider Elspeth Leacock and Susan Buckley's "Places in Time: A New Atlas of American History" (for 7-14 year olds), which teaches kids about fascinating stories behind 20 little-known American places using oral narratives, old maps, drawings and contemporary accounts. Don't forget to get Lynn Kuntz's "Celebrate the USA: Hands-On History Activities for Kids" (for 8-10 year olds), which will have you playing musical inventions like Ben Franklin or creating liberty wind socks from oatmeal boxes, glues, yarn and paper.

Visit us for free tips and training to help you make quick easy money and have the financial freedom you deserve.

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Understanding Current US and World Conditions

By Hugh Ashlie

Throughout history, humanity has devoted enormous amounts of energy and money in the pursuit of answers to real and perceived difficulties and challenges that humanity has faced. It seems ironic that we understand the cyclic nature of the seasons and are able to predict the exact position of planets in our galaxy at any given time, yet appear to be surprised by the cyclic nature of world affairs. The only universal constant is cyclic change, and predicting the next change is not difficult once the underlying cyclic principals are understood. Reacting to change seems to be the general modus operandi, plus the fact that most change is usually fiercely resisted.

All cycles are mathematical in nature because however great or small they are divisible by nine or a product of nine. Most astrologers fix the duration of the precession cycle, the time it takes for the equinox to precess 360 degrees relative to the fixed stars at 25,920 years and within this great cycle are many cycles of shorter duration. Ancient wisdom states that among the numerous cycles which include the cycle of Great Empires spanning several centuries, the economic cycle which is said to be 81 years in duration, market cycles are said to be 18 years in duration. The question that might come to mind is. - Where is the planning for this cyclic change?

Today's conditions are continually compared to the Great Depression by reporters, politicians, pundits and many in the general populace. So let us back it up slightly. The roaring 1920's were noted for a time of fun and partying. There are many reasons why it was called the Roaring Twenties. Most of the American people were living a great life and were able to afford luxury items, although this did not apply to every one many believed that it was an excellent and exciting time of great hopes. The workweek dropped from 60 to 48 hours. At this time Americans began to consider play as important as work.

The car and train industries were the largest. The assembly line made mass production possible, and industry boomed. America was now the envy of many nations. The largest assembly line was Henry Ford's in Detroit. Almost everybody in the United States had a car. Instead of paying for the cars with cash, people could now use credit to purchase items. Since most families did not have the money, they would buy the car with on credit.

Many people benefited from the boom. Average Americans either bought on margin or made money in other ways. Factory owners and companies made massive profits. The number of millionaires rose from 7,000 in 1914 to 35,000 in 1920. People made money by buying and selling items and making a profit on them, much like the real estate flippers of the 1990's.

It would appear that the economic cycle was right on time, but to make sure that we are on the right track let us examine what happened in the economic cycle before 1920. (1920 - 81 = 1939)

o From 1836 to 1860, individual "wildcat" banks issued currency not always supported by gold or silver.

o Land speculation grew as public lands were bought by speculators like John Jacob Astor, and William Gilpin with wildcat currency.

o President Jackson issued the Specie Circular in 1836, demanding that public lands be bought with gold or silver. This decree by Jackson curbed land speculation with questionable bank notes, but also helped destabilize the Western economy. Wildcat banking and land speculation, a fall in the price of cotton and tightening of British credit halted an overheated economy, and helped cause the Panic and a depression that lasted until the mid 1840's.

Peter Temin's The Jacksonian Economy (1969) has become the standard and definitive work on the causes of this Panic. He absolved President Jackson and the banks from having caused the panic and sites several contributing factors, and whether or not one agrees with his premise these factors are only the conditions that existed at the time. The outcome was certainly colored by the reaction of those in power at the time to the conditions.

The fallacy of our modern day thinking is reflected in the wikipedia definition of a business or economic cycle; "The term business cycle (or economic cycle) refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years. These fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend, and typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the growth rate of real gross domestic product. Despite being termed cycles, most of these fluctuations in economic activity do not follow a mechanical or predictable periodic pattern."

Planning for cyclic change is practically non-existent in world economic affairs. Individually or collectively, society has two avenues that may be used to address evolving economic conditions as they unfold.

1. Wait until it happens and then react to the new conditions. (usually accompanied by panic)

2. Understand the cyclic nature of passing time as it applies to economic conditions and construct a plan that will address changing conditions when occur.

Until we can collectively employ the second option, we are bound to keep repeating history.

In conclusion, we might ask the question. So what's in store for 2010? Well do the math - October 29, 1929 Black Tuesday occurred, a massive stock market crash that signaled the beginning of the Great Depression. At the time, the crash was considered to be a cause of the Great Depression but it is now generally considered to have been a symptom. (October 29, 1929 + 81 = 2010)

The widespread concern over the US dollars decline is for the moment not a real difficulty. However the "Bretton Woods Agreements" that were deliberated during the first three weeks of July 1944, and the consequent situation whereby the United States dollar became the "reserve currency" for those that signed the agreement may in the not to distant future (1944 + 81 = 2025) become a condition that will have to dealt with. Now might be the opportune time to begin the process of formulating a comprehensive plan for dealing with that condition. Change although at times painfully slow is inevitable.

Hugh Ashlie is a semi-retired custom home builder with a penchant for things of quality. URL [http://hughashlie.com/]

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How Do We Turn Our World Around, We Go Back to Basics

By Tomas Coimin

Apollos, who was a disciple of Paul's, seems to have nailed it quite succinctly almost two thousand years ago in his letter to the Hebrews. Here we are today and his words are as relevant as they were back then. We nurture plants to provide food; therefore, we need to nurture our minds constantly with the best possible food available in order to conquer the troubles of every corner of this world, not just in our own backyard.

Going back to basics I believe is commencing an outreach program involving a diligent study of the Bible and not just reading it like a novel or the Sunday newspapers. I reckon more diligence is given to planning important events like weddings and vacations even perusing the sports sections, than there is to the enlightenment of our minds. Forming or joining a mentorship or mastermind program is a magical step towards getting back to the basics and thus allowing room for advancement.

The actual percentage of those with an innate ability to rise above the norm and achieve beyond amazing successes in their fields of endeavour is really quite low. The recent disasters that threw us or rather flung us into a recession cum depression indicates how vulnerable we are to the evil forces of greed and why advances in education are essential. An educated consumer in many worldly affairs will never tolerate the disarmament of their dignity to self-serving imbeciles irrespective of authority.

These changes will be effective if we as a united front demand changes that fully prepare each student to succeed with their self-esteem intact. An additional boost to morale would be magical for expectant parents as the formation of excellent self-esteem commences in the home. Then teachers also need to reassess their teaching methods uplifting students without ever using vocabulary that diminish student's capabilities often with permanent damaging results.

This food for the mind is so magical it sustains me daily and I have found that I have become more aware of the presence of God, the realities of nature and the potential magnificence of humanity. 'I have food to eat that you don't know about.' John 4:32

When the light comes on with the realization and enlightenment, the superfluity of materialism is removed and you will delight in your nakedness. This is the key: absolute nakedness with complete trust in God!

Take away everything you love and I mean everything not leaving any attachments whatsoever, human, animal and physical. Ask are you defined by your actions, inspired by beliefs, conducive to harmony in all aspects of your life? If the answer is yes, well congratulations and advance to 'Go'. You are more than ready for the next step.

Now if you are like most of the world the answer will be no and there will be a nudging question egging us on to find that which will truly define us creating the harmony we desire. Balance has no motion so put the wee machine back in the shed and take out harmony.

You will recognise the importance of harmony as you add up the numbers of areas that fill up your life. With a careful analysis, and I mean a very strict careful analysis, the messages will jump off the pages loud and clear. This will assist you on your journey as it is basically the luggage you are carrying and as your trip unfolds certain facts will become aware prompting you to take necessary steps. How much time in your schedule do you devote to personal growth and meditative practices allowing your psyche to develop?

Useful tip: make a decision to go to a really quiet place and turn off all your techno gadgets and allow the universal energy of resurgent growth to flow through you. There are no excuses because all of us can devote peaceful time for reflection and recuperation! God bless!

Tomas Coimin is born and raised in Irelands Emerald shores and I believe faith in God and high self-esteem are inextricably linked and thus you shall see references throughout my writings linking both. Don't forget: e-mail selfesteemawareness@gmail.com for your free 15 day trial of brilliant neuro and meditative software that will more than ring your bell! Neuro-Programmer is a next generation mind tool for self-improvement. It combines brainwave entrainment with hypnosis and many other fields to produce the most effective software for self-help available today. It is also very easy to install and use speeding up your opportunity to reap benefits. I always guarantee your e-mail address wil be absolutely never sold or given to any other source because we respect privacy as a user.

God bless and tooraloo.

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Why China and India Will Soon Dominate the World - Will Our Political Class Do Anything About it?

By Bruno Korschek

If you look at some statistics from the U.S. Census organization, the CIA Fact Book, and several other credible sources and put them together in a "what-if" analysis regarding the future economic power of Russia, China, India, and the United States, you can develop the following statistical measures:

- The current population of the United States is about 310 million people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to grow about 42% to 439 million, the current GDP of the United States is about $14.43 trillion dollars which yields a current GDP to current population ratio of about $46,561 per person ($14.43 trillion divided by 310 million people).

- The current population of Russia is about 143 million people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to shrink 23% to 109 million people, the current GDP of Russia is about $1.24 trillion, yielding a GDP to population ratio of about $8681.

- The current population of China is about 1.34 billion people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to grow about 9% to 1.46 billion people, the current GDP of China is about $4.8 billion, yielding a GDP to population ratio of about $3,595.

- The current population of India is about 1.2 billion people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to grow about 53% to 1.81 billion people, the current GDP of India is about $1.1 trillion, yielding a GDP to population ratio of about $925.

Not unexpected, the United States is the richest country in the world as measured by gross GDP and GDP per citizen. However, the growth of the United States economy is pretty steady and conservative vs. countries like China and India. Let's play some games with these base numbers:

- Let's assume, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, that China continues to grow very quickly over the next forty years. If the Chinese are able to get their GDP to population ratio up to half of what the current U.S. ratio is, then the total size of the Chinese economy as measured by GDP (in today's dollars) would be over $34 trillion, almost two and half times the size of the U.S. economy.

- Let's do the same thing with India but assume that the ratio is so low that they can only get their ratio up to one quarter of what the current U.S. ratio is, then the total size of the Indian economy as measured by GDP (in today's dollars) would be over $21 trillion, 50% larger than the size of the U.S. economy.

- We will not do the same analysis for Russia since given how fast its population base is shrinking, its economic impact in the world economy will be less and less over time.

Thus, the upside for both the Chinese and Indian markets are very high based on the sheer number of citizens in each country and their governments' desire to aggressively grow their economies. Before we know it, both economies could be approaching and/or surpassing the size and power of the United States economy.

If you do not believe these calculations, consider a recent article from the Financial Times that was summarized in the July 30, 2010 issue of The Week magazine. According to the Financial Times, China is now the biggest consumer of energy, passing the United States last year as reported by the International Energy Agency. As late as the year 2000, the United States used twice the energy that China used. Now, China is using at least 4% more than us.

Another source. In a recent feature section in Fortune magazine, Goldman Sach's was quoted as estimating that by the year 2050, the size of the Chinese economy will be about $70 billion while the size of the U.S. economy will be only about $40 billion and just barely ahead of the Indian economy. By 2050, Brazil, Russia, India, and China will exceed the greenhouse emissions of the rest of the developed world.

All of these numbers point to the same conclusion: namely that China and India will become much, much stronger in the coming years and much more competitive, both for raw materials, finished products, and markets to sell their products. The United States needs to take some long term strategic actions in light of the coming tsunami of stronger economic rivals:

- We cannot hope to compete in the future economic landscape if we do not find a way to better educate our children for this new reality. The United States consistently ranks in the bottom half of worldwide student testing and education. This will not make for a strong economy if our workforce is outsmarted by other countries that also have the advantage of numbers on their side.

- We cannot hamstring our own economy with Obama's cap and trade policy while the rest of the world, including the bigger and bigger energy users of China and India do not agree to stringent and trackable carbon emissions programs. If the United States goes it alone in this area, our economy will suffer at the hands of these economies that do not, resulting in lost jobs, lost industries, and lost economic strength since any carbon savings we incur will be overwhelmed by these new economic powers.

- We cannot continue to police the world, draining our economy through our military budget. Better to focus on getting our own economic house in order rather than deploying troops around the world to protect against enemies that do not exist anymore, enemies that cannot do any direct harm to us, or enemies that are better handled by other countries or the United Nations. We need to bring home our 54,000 or so troops from Germany since the Iron Curtain no longer exists, we need to bring home the 90,000 or so troops from Iraq as Obama the campaigner promised to do, we need to bring home our 50,000 or so troops from Japan since Japan is not going to hit Pearl harbor again and 50,000 troops are useless in the face of 2,000,000 Chinese troops in the neighborhood, and we need to bring home our 28,000 or so troops from South Korea and let them handle their own security, their economy is strong enough to handle it. Our focus on defense needs to be much more narrow and much more focused on those that could actually harm us and we need to bank the savings and strengthen those areas that will enable is to better compete economically.

- We need to finally develop and deploy a sane national energy program that makes us as self sufficient as possible, given that the hungrier economies of India and China will start to compete with us for raw energy sources. The less we spend on energy, as with defense, the better and stronger our economy will be against the onslaught of the growing economic powers in the world.

- We need to start getting our national debt and government spending problem under control now. The more capital and investment dollars that can be funneled into American businesses, the better off we can compete with China and India and the rest of the world. If all of our available capital is going to the government, where it is used on wasteful, inefficient government programs or used to pay the interest our national debt, the less flexible and competitive American businesses will be and less economic health our citizens will enjoy.

Bottom line, what is needed is a long term strategic plan for dealing with the new world order in the areas of national defense and economic strength. Do we think that the American political class is ready for such a comprehensive analytical and strategic task? Consider what our politicians have been working on over the past year or so:

- A Congresswoman and her staff worked on legislation that would regulate the sound volume of television commercials.

- A Congressman and his staff worked on legislation that would ban the airing of ED commercials on television.

- A Congressman and his staff worked on legislation that would provide a tax break for pet owners who might have to give up their pets in these hard economic times.

- The entire U.S. Congress and the entire Federal financial regulatory network was completely blind sided by the biggest economic malaise since the Great Depression, not realizing what was coming until it hit them in the face.

- Politicians in both houses of Congress worked on a bill to regulate how Division One college football teams decide a national championship.

- The current New Mexico governor is working on whether or not to pardon Billy The Kid, who died over a hundred years ago.

- A Georgia Congressman, at a Congressional hearing, worried in public on whether the island of Guam could tip over in the ocean.

- At least two sitting Congress people are likely to shortly face ethics charges and potential trials in the House Of Representatives for numerous financial and ethics offenses.

- Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, has publicly stated the insane concept that unemployment is the best way to create jobs.

As you can see, we have not elected the most forward thinking, strategic brains in the country. They are so entwined in the daily political infighting and just absolutely trivial matters that time is slipping away while other countries are quickly growing their economies to compete with us, our companies and our citizens.

If long term, strategic thinkers were running this country, they would not be working on the above trivial matters but instead would be focused on the following:

Step 1 - start reducing the size of the Federal government by 10% a year for five years to get our national debt and spending under control and to leave more capital in the private market for investment against other economies.

Step 2 - find a way to finally make us more energy self sufficient and to bring other nations into a world wide, trackable process that reduces carbon emissions equally, not allowing any economy to gain an economic edge at the expense of others and the environment.

Step 3 - develop a ground up approach to overhaul, improve, and revolutionize American public education processes to prepare our kids for competition in the new economic world order.

Step 4 - bring home most, if not all, of our foreign deployed forces to begin the downsizing of our military budget in order to get our national debt under control and to provide capital to grow our private sector of the U.S. economy.

Step 5 - end the Cuban embargo immediately. After fifty years, most sane people would conclude it has not worked and ending the embargo would open up a new market for American businesses just ninety miles from our shores.

Step 6 - the most important step, institute term limit for all politicians. Given that none of these needed strategic steps have happened to make us better able to compete in the new economic reality and that most of the sitting politicians have been sitting in the same seats for decades while nothing happened, we cannot assume that all of a sudden they will do the right thing. We need to continually refresh those serving in Congress and the government with new people that are more fully aware of what is going on in the world and are not tied to old ways of thinking and spending.

We can succeed, we just need some visionary thinker and leaders to make it happen. India has its own problems, a large part of its population is still dirt poor, possibly providing social unrest problems unless they somehow can bring more people into their economic growth. The Chinese population will age quickly, as a result of their one child per family policy, putting strain on their economy in the coming years. All is not lost. In fact, if executed right, a long term strategic plan, as proposed above, could make the United States even stronger since new markets would open up in these growth economies. I guess the political class will get to this strategic plan as soon as the fix that pesky college football playoff system.

Our new book, "Love my Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom and Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at http://www.loathemygovernment.com and online at Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Our daily dialog on freedom in America can be joined at http://www.loathemygovernment.blogspot.com.

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The World in 2050

By Harold Forbes

PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is an international accountancy and management consultancy that has published a series of reports about how the world might look, economically, in 2050. They make interesting reading.

According to their latest updates Britain and other developed countries may spend the next four decades in the slow lane of the global economy unless their businessmen can break into the fast-growing markets of Asia and Latin America. The consultancy group believes that if the developed economies continue with over-reliance on customers in Europe and North America they will gradually slide down the international economic league table between now and 2050. By then even the mighty US will have lost its crown as the world's biggest economy, not only to China but will also have been surpassed by India. The UK will have slumped from 7th to 10th largest while Brazil will move from 9th to 4th. Mexico and Indonesia will all also have claimed a spot in the top 10.

Political leaders from the UK have led high-profile trade missions to Asia in recent years in an attempt to emulate the success Germany has had in breaking into the markets of the leading emerging economies. UK companies are encouraged to take advantage of the fall in the value of the pound to seize the opportunities provided by rapid industrialisation and increasing consumer spending power in China and India in particular. But John Hawksworth, PwC's chief economist, says there is little evidence they are being successful, even though the leading emerging economies have bounced back quickly from the deep downturn caused by the collapse of western banks in the financial crisis of 2008 and are currently growing three or four times as fast as the US, Japan or the leading eurozone nations. The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund suggest that China will grow by 10.5% this year, India by 9.7%, Brazil by 7.5% and Russia by 4.0% - yet the four economies combined account for 7% of UK exports, the same as for crisis-ridden Ireland.

Britain suffered its longest and deepest recession of the post-second world war era in 2008 and 2009, but is still ranked as the world's sixth biggest economy. International comparisons between economies can either be made using market exchange rates or "purchase power parity", which takes account of the relative buying power of the currency in its home market. Using either measure, China will be the biggest economy in the world by mid-century, the report says.

If we look beyond the aggregate numbers to look at what it might mean for individual people, it paints a very different picture. Using the GDP data from the report and combining it with UN World Population Prospects 2008 edition, it is possible to calculate the Purchase Power Parity GDP per head of the main countries for 2010 and 2050. This changes the way the top 20 economies look quiet dramatically. Australia, which wouldn't feature in the top 10 by total economy size, is revealed as the second richest country, a position it manages to retain by 2050. The UK, which is the 4th richest per capita slips to 6th while the progress of the developing countries is less spectacular with China stepping up just one place from 18th to 17th although South Korea does jump from 10th to 4th.

The most spectacular changes take place in the spread of GDP per capita with the number of countries at half or less of the US per capita number falling from 11 to 7 with Vietnam's relative wealth per head jumping from 7 to 38% of the US level while China goes from 15 to 45%. This narrowing of the wealth spread does give some support to the idea that economic growth is good for everyone but somehow I suspect that we will see few of these projections come to pass.

The tendency for humans is to predict the future as much the same as the past but with growing or decline influences from predictable impacts e.g. large numbers of women entering the workforce. Thus PwC look at growth in the labour force of working age, average education levels across the adult population, growth in the physical capital stock and total factor productivity growth, all pretty much standard current economic levers. Much of human behaviour (and hence economies), is driven by what it perceived to be "normal", so today's paradigm of energy intensive economies with country specialisation and free flows of international capital is probably the underlying thinking. What is considered to be "normal", however, is more difficult to predict; just a year after Roger Bannister achieved the "impossible" 4 minute mile, three men ran sub 4 minutes in the same race, before Milgram's electric shock experiments he asked colleagues what percentage they thought would administer the "fatal" shock level and they predicted 1% when in fact two third went all-the-way.

Over the next 40 years of idea of what are "normal" conditions is going to be challenged in the extreme. The current course of carbon emissions means that we will be well on our way to a 4 degree Celsius increase in average temperatures, a level that Rachel Warren points out in a Royal Society paper "The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change," means,

In such a 4 degree world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.

In a companion paper to the one in your report, PwC have a report titled "Can rapid global growth be reconciled with moving to a low-carbon economy?" which envisages a situation where global warming is avoided by reducing current emissions levels to about half their present level through increased efficiency in energy use, greater use of renewable and carbon capture and storage, and reduced deforestation. The cost of their projections is just one year of global GDP growth i.e. the world reaches the same level of GDP in 2051 as might otherwise have happened in 2050. What they have not calculated is how much wealth destruction, like the estimated $13 billion cost of damage in the Australian floods of earlier 2011, will be caused if steps are not taken.

A 50% reduction is not quite as far as the climate scientist are currently saying is needed but this report suggests the world has a bright future. To put that at risk by further prevarication on taking meaningful, global action borders on being criminal activity. The solutions to climate change are available and eminently affordable; it just needs the political will to implement them.

You can download a free PDF of the PwC report from their website.

Harold Forbes is Author of "How to be a Humankind Superhero: a manifesto for individuals to reclaim a safe climate". Read chapter summaries at http://www.hksuperh.com or download the first chapter as a FREE PDF at http://bit.ly/freehksh

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Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture and Food Supply

By Christophe Catesson

For a long time it has been believed that the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply is going to be a positive one. This is because the rising level of carbon-dioxide resulted for global warming will help the greeneries for photosynthesis.



Thus there will be a rise of agricultural production and food supply. The theorem received a boost after the evidence of a sharp rise of barley production as one of the effects of global warming in Iceland which was quite impossible even few years ago.



But more recent experiments and researches have revealed that the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply are not that good after all. AN UNEP 2001 report on the global warming has predicted that USA is going to have more droughts, floods, landslides and storms.



Winter will gradually be shortened and sobered down, while summer will rise in expansion and severity. Along with this heavy rain, big storm, heavy snowfall, high sea level, increasing coastal erosion and other problems will occur.



Though as one of the effects of global warming, the overall food supply and production level is supposed to rise in USA, but the Great Plains will suffer with more droughts resulting for global warming.



Even now many effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply have been perceived. The popular maple syrup production of North east USA has diminished by 10%, moving its production zone to farther north for shorter and warmer winter.



On the other hand as one of the effects of global warming the south west USA is suffering from a water shortage which will increase in coming days. The zone has become dry for any standard agricultural production with an apprehension of resettling Dust Bowl of 1930s’ by the year 2030 for global warming.



Following a report of IPCC on the global warming, California’s snow covered Sierra Mountains can reduce in near future by up to 60-90%. This will create dire water shortage in summer, making the Central Valley area unsuitable for agricultural production for global warming. The State University of Colorado has declared that the area is going to be less productive due to effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply.



As the effects of global warming, the food supply production in Florida is going to suffer a lot due to frequent and large scale floods. Also one of the most profitable agricultural products of USA – corn will suffer a bad condition due to dry and hot atmosphere for global warming.



As another example of the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply - with the rise of temperature by 3 to 11 degrees in this century, the production rate of the main crops – the rice, corn, wheat, barley, soybeans and sorghum – will be cut down by 3-5% for each point rise of temperature for global warming.



However with all these effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply, new attempts have been made to adjust the agricultural and food production method according to the changing atmosphere. So to fight the effects of global warming, the researchers have established new methods of production with continuous revision of models. But still the best possible process to reduce the effects of global warming on agriculture and food supply is to be established.



About the Author: For more similar articles, visit http://www.theglobalwarmingoverview.com and read about facts, maps, news and myths.



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